US CONTAINER IMBALANCE WORSENS DESPITE TARIFFS
Amid escalating tensions in an ongoing trade dispute, the anticipated conversation between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was scrapped yesterday and has yet to be rescheduled. A tariff tit-for-tat has got underway between the world’s two largest economies with the US putting a blanket 10% levy on all Chinese imports, and Beijing responding, saying it will impose from next Monday a 15% tariff on LNG and coal imported from the US, as well as a 10% tariff on oil, agricultural machinery and large-displacement cars. In the first month of the Trump administration, the president has threatened – and then dropped – tariffs against Colombia, Canada and Mexico. Only China has felt the wrath of American tariffs to date. Judah Levine, head of research at box booking platform Freightos, said the recent tariff “drama” heightens the concern over how completely unpredictable and disruptive this second Trump administration may prove. The market stands to lose roughly three VLCCs per month of US crude to China, according to Braemar, but this slack is likely to be picked up by other importers in Northeast Asia.
HOUTHIS SEEN BY MAERSK AS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PROFIT AND LOSS THIS YEAR
Last year has proven to be the third most profitable year in the history of container shipping, and likewise it proved to be the third best year in the 121-year history of Denmark’s largest shipping concern, Maersk. Top management in Copenhagen today laid out how the Houthis from Yemen could dictate the line between black or red ink for the coming year. Maersk reported its third-best financial year ever today with an EBIT for 2024 of $6.5bn. The Danish carrier forecasted global container volume growth in 2025 will be around 4%. However, the very big dividing line between profit and loss this year, according to Maersk, will centre around the Red Sea. The Houthis of Yemen have put their campaign against merchant shipping on hold, with no attacks reported in 2025 so far, as Israel and Hamas take steps toward peace. The situation remains tense however with very few liners returning to take the Suez route between Asia and Europe. The Danish liner is nearing the end of its first week in a new alliance, launching the Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd covering the main east-west trades. The ambition is to deliver a flexible and interconnected ocean network with industry-leading schedule reliability above 90% once fully phased in.
FEDERAL MARITIME COMMISSION OKAYS PREMIER ALLIANCE AGREEMENT
The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) in the US has given its blessing to the formation of the Asian liner grouping, the Premier Alliance. Alliance partners HMM, Ocean Network Express (ONE), and Yang Ming were left stunned when in early November the FMC demanded more information about the new alliance, hobbling its February 1 official launch. Now satisfied with the alliance structure, the FMC has said the liner grouping can start on its main east-west trades connecting with the US from this Sunday. It has now been a week since global liner alliances underwent their biggest shuffle in a decade, with Hapag-Lloyd leaving its Asian peers to form the Gemini Cooperation with Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) largely going it alone while the members of the Ocean Alliance remain intact.
US BOX IMPORTS SOAR AHEAD OF NEW TARIFFS
US box imports reached a record high in January with deliveries from China up for a second month, according to Canadian logistics and supply chain management tech specialist Descartes. Imports in January stood at 2,487,470 teu, surpassing the previous record in January 2022 by 21,455 teu. Boxes from China hit 997,909 teu of last month’s total, a jump of 10.6% over December and just 2.4% shy of the all-time high of 1,022,912 teu set in July 2024. The spike comes against a backdrop of tariff instability, with the US placing a fresh 10% tariff on Chinese goods on February 4, while more punitive 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were suspended until March to allow for more discussions. “The impact of new and potential tariffs, coupled with a late Chinese Lunar New Year, may have contributed to higher US container imports in January,” said Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy at Descartes.