WEEK 15 MARKET UPDATE

TRUMP’S U-TURN OPENS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY 

President Trump’s volte-face on trade tariffs has opened a window of opportunity for US importers to bring in freight  over the following three months, with a significantly lower tariff of ‘just’ 10%. The announcement followed a week  defined by Trump’s global tariff announcements on 2 April which led to escalating tariff announcements between the US  and China, and turmoil on global stock markets. It is understood that all tariffs will return to the base 10% level  except China, which has had an effective rate of 150% imposed by Washington, an additional 125% on top of the initial  25%. Mexico and Canada never had a base rate tariff. Tariffs on aluminium and steel and finished cars, imposed on 2  April, remain at 25% and new tariffs on car parts are expected to be enforced on 2 May. World Trade Organization  (WTO) analysis suggests that trade between the US and China could fall by up to 80%, a $466bn drop, according to WTO  forecasts.  

EARLY LINER PEAK SEASON GETS UNDERWAY 

Amidst all the tariff bombast coming out of the White House last week, liner fortunes actually improved. Global spot  indices were up marginally, with Drewry, the British architects of the World Container Index, suggesting that rates will  increase in the coming weeks due to tariffs and reduced capacity. “ A boom and an early peak season into the US will  start right now,” predicted analysts at Danish consultancy Sea-Intelligence in a weekly report, published yesterday. Last week, Trump announced a 90-day pause on a host of global tariffs he had planned, but increased levies on Chinese  imports to 145%, while then announcing that some electronic products – including those produced in China – would be  exempt. “All US importers getting cargo from anywhere but China, are sure to fast-track volume in the next three  months, to get their peak season goods through customs, before the July 9th deadline,” Sea-Intelligence explained. Booking collapsed in the opening days of April as the world grappled with the specifics of the Trump  administration’s tariffs. However, with the 90-day tariff ceasefire, container bookings are now picking up fast outside of  China. “With tariffs from other trade partners currently on a 90-day pause, shippers are navigating a highly uncertain  and fast-changing trade environment.

IS GLOBAL RECESSION PART OF TRUMP’S GRAND PLAN TO REBOOT THE WORLD ORDER? 

On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared a national emergency to address what he described as a “large and  persistent US trade deficit”, enabling him to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose  a 10% tariff on all imports to the US, effective April 5, 2025. He also announced higher tariffs for 57 countries and  territories set to begin April 9. These tariffs – known as Reciprocal Tariffs – are calculated with a unique formula. The  final “reciprocal tariff” policy appeared to calculate the value of a country’s trade barriers by dividing the US trade deficit  with the country by the value of US imports from the country. The “reciprocal” tariff rate Trump imposed was then  calculated by dividing that value in half. The most immediate impact of these tariffs will be on perishables, most of  which are essentials. Food and other related items will need to be replenished quite quickly and thus will see an  immediate rise in prices. Of the two scenarios. The first is production remaining in its current position. This will mean  the US will continue to import most of its consumption, consumers will pay steep tariffs, and Trump’s Grand Strategy  outlined above will play out.  

CMA CGM BUYS INTO EGYPTIAN INLAND PORT 

French shipping and logistics giant CMA CGM has agreed to buy a 35% stake in Egypt’s October Dry Port (ODP). Officially launched in November 2023, ODP is Egypt’s first dry port and the first public-private partnership project in the  Egyptian transport sector under the EBRD Green Cities program. It was developed, built, and operated by Elsewedy  Electric in partnership with the General Authority for Land and Dry Ports (GALDP).A strategic partnership, sealed  following French President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to Egypt, includes a management agreement under which  CMA CGM will become involved in the activities and development of the logistics and rail platform of the inland port. ODP is directly connected to all of Egypt’s seaports and serves as a logistics hub, facilitating faster cargo clearance,  reducing seaport congestion. “This is a unique opportunity to foster the development of low emission intermodal  solutions in Egypt through efficient rail connections,” said Christine Cabau Woehrel, executive vice president of assets  and operations at the CMA CGM, adding that the new investment confirms the Group’s long-term commitment to  Egyptian supply chain growth.

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